Bitcoin surged to a 45-day high above $91,000 on April 22, and the upward movement coincided with gold reaching a new all-time high. The price gains reflect investors' concerns over a potential economic recession amid ongoing global trade tensions.
The tides are shifting, but does data support a Bitcoin price rally above $95,000?
In neutral markets, the Bitcoin futures premium typically ranges between 5% and 10% to compensate for the longer settlement period. At present, the annualized premium stands at 6%, which is not considered particularly bullish, even though BTC appreciated by $6,840 between April 20 and April 22. Some analysts interpret this as a sign that Bitcoin is beginning to decouple from the stock market.
Part of this skepticism among traders stems from Bitcoin’s repeated inability to sustain levels above $90,000 in early March. For example, Bitcoin tested the $95,000 mark on March 3, only to fall to $81,464 the following day. This inconsistent performance since the $109,346 peak on Jan. 20 has contributed to a lack of conviction among bullish investors, especially as gold has continued to set new all-time highs during the same period.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading 16% below its all-time high, a figure that closely mirrors the S&P 500’s decline of 14.5%. This suggests that the recent era of excessive risk-taking may be behind us. Notably, even at its lowest point below $75,000, Bitcoin’s 32% drawdown was less severe than those experienced by Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (META), and Tesla (TSLA).
Comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on April 22 contributed to easing investor concerns. As reported by Bloomberg, Bessent described the ongoing tariff standoff with China as “unsustainable,” suggesting an increased likelihood of de-escalation. In contrast, US President Donald Trump took to social media to assert that US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is hindering economic growth by not reducing interest rates.